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 Breeders Cup 2015 
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Filly&Mare Turf - Should be a European dominated race. I like the looks of Bawina. The last race looks like a prep for this. Her effort the race before in the Jean Romanet looked impressive to me on video. Her and Legatissimo may be lengths ahead of the rest.

Bawina - Classic bad looking on paper prep race before shipping all the way over here to take on the best. Seen this before. - scratched

Legatissimo - Heavy campaign takes its toll? - 2

Queen's Jewel - Another one like the top choice. - 3

Hard Not To Like - These may be too tough

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Last edited by SiriusChill on Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Oct 29, 2015 11:53 pm
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
SiriusChill wrote:
Juvenile Fillies - All the attention will be on Songbird as it should be. I dare to go against her. Tap To It is the choice. True she was beaten by Rachel's Valentina last out but my thinking is maybe she had some excuses. Perhaps she had spent too much on her fabulous debut and wasn't totally ready for the Spinaway. I'm hoping with the short break after the Spinaway that she comes back with a repeat of her debut.

Tap To It - Yet another Tapit beast.

Rachel's Valentina - Beat the top choice last out.

Songbird - Obvious favorite will take some beating. Not a lock in my book

Forever Darling - Ambitious spot after Maiden win.



This is what makes Songbird Special in my book.

We can directly compare the top Filly with the top Colt( Nyquist).

They both ran over the same course and distance the last twice.

In the first race they went 7 furlongs.

Songbird times were 22.33- 44.84- 1.09.81-1.22.65
Nyquist were 22.44- 44.54- 1.09.80- 1.23.28


They went through the 6 furlongs at the same pace but Songbird went over 3L quicker in the final furlong.

The last race was run on the same day over 1m and half furlong

Songbird 23.14- 46.85- 1.11.09- 1.37.00- 1.43.79
Nyquist 23.04- 47.01- 1.12.47- 1.38.36- 1.44.89

They ran the first 4 furlongs in around the same time but the next 2 furlongs Songbird went nearly 7L quicker, she used a lot of energy up there and yet the last 2 and a half furlongs Nyquist went just over a length quicker racing full out while Songbird was powering down. Perhaps Nyquist is the best of a bad bunch but both times Songbird was a far better race horse.

The only thing that worry's me is that she is shipping for the first time and 2yo's west coast horses do best on their home patch and east coast horses do better when they stay at home.


Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:10 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Sprint - This race features quite a few of the great chemists in American horse racing. :roll: Will be hard to get your juice to work with all the scrutiny and testing involved. I will take a horse that usually lets you down because of his horrible gate habits - Kobe's Back. Good thing for Kobe is he loves to make one huge run so the bad starts help somewhat. His last win was at Keeneland and it was a poweful performance.

Kobe's Back - Hoping he only breaks 5 steps slow today and loves Keeneland

Ivan Fallunovalot - Game sprinter has been facing lesser. Borel has fallen out of favor with me and most trainers these days it seems.

Wild Dude - Runs from off the pace and near the lead.

Holy Boss - Ready for this - 4

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Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:47 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Could someone please let me know the times of the Breeders Cup races and if it is on attheraces or racing uk?


Fri Oct 30, 2015 12:49 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
qwsa wrote:
Could someone please let me know the times of the Breeders Cup races and if it is on attheraces or racing uk?


Info here - http://digitalassets.nbcsports.com/breederscup/2015/breederscup_schedule.html

If you can't watch it there I'm sure many of the free live sports pirate web sites will have the feed. I of course have only heard tell of these type of sites :roll:

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Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:22 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Mile - Seen better runnings of the Mile. Obviously in the race ensures a brutal pace. I can find excuses for most of these to lose. Will go with the French 3yo Impassable. Her last race was very professional and she gets a nice set up here.

Impassable - Pounces on tired foes

Time Test - Looks sharp to me

Tourist - Nice rally last out was a first. Improving.

Recepta - In great form.

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Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:38 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Juvenile - Not one Todd Pletcher horse in the Juvenile? Mark this day. A very contentious race with a beatable favorite. I like the Looks of Brody's Cause. His late rally in his two wins are the real deal. Should get a nice pace to pounce on.

Brody's Cause - Will be a close one. May be too late though. - 3

Unbridled Outlaw - A Romans exacta? Hail Ceasar

Ralis - Will bounce back.

Riker - Son of Include is all speed which is unusual for a son of Include. Should like dirt.

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Last edited by SiriusChill on Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Oct 30, 2015 1:50 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Turf - Can't go against Golden Horn here. Not much competition for him in this race.

Golden Horn - Way too good for these. How'd he ever lose a race? - 2

Red Rifle - Cleverly prepped for this. Nice exacta hope.

Slumber - 7yo is in fine form. - 4

Big Blue Kitten - Another game 7yo. - 3

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Fri Oct 30, 2015 3:18 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Classic - Here goes. American Pharaoh's swan song and I am going against him. He beat subpar competition to win the triple crown. His last race he should have won but lost to the not well thought of Keen Ice. I believe American Pharoah should be running faster figures especially in the soft races he has been in. I will go with Frosted. Since Joel Rosario started riding Frosted he has learned how to rally nicely. I believe Rosario is the key to Frosted's big races this year. His last race sets him up perfectly for this.

Frosted - Icing on the cake today

American Phoaroh - Was fun to watch his career unfold - 1

Tonalist - Always right there

Smooth Roller - Slow pace helps his chances - scratched

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Fri Oct 30, 2015 3:39 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Analysis of the Friday Races:

Juvenile Turf

14- Hit It A Bomb
-Best horse Aidan O’Brien brings over. Easy win at The Curragh with Ryan Moore. Improved in win last time at Dundalk. Gets Ryan Moore back. Should get lead early. Horse to beat.
12- Camelot Kitten
-Closed impressively last race at Keeneland. If he gets a good break, will be tough to stop him late. Has had two good preps at Keeneland since last race.
7-Ray’s The Bar
-Had traffic trouble last time out. Won first time out for a barn that doesn’t win often with firsters. Should improve off of last race.
13- Cymric
-Hard to deny John Gosden a win with this one. Just unlucky last time in France. Definitely needs to improve to win this race however. No real pace to close to will force this horse up closer.

Dirt Mile

5- Lea
-Just unlucky last time out. Bill Mott very good with Turf to Dirt angle and is a sharp miler trainer. Lea is very talented and will take well behind a very tough pace. The one who will pick up the pieces down that long stretch.
9- Tapiture
-Was second behind Goldencents in last year’s Dirt Mile. Very impressive win in Ack Ack Handicap last time out. Will appreciate the quick pace early. If he can break well then definitely a threat at a price.
1- Red Vine
-Sharp horse. Getting the rail will help a speedy stalker who should follow Bradester out of the gate. Like Tapiture, Red Vine breaks poorly, but with a good break, will be taking over the lead down the stretch.
6- Street Strategy
-Longshot play. This horse is a wildcard, but was very sharp earlier this year racing against good company. Beat a good horse in Neck N’ Neck last time out. Already has a win over the mile distance at Keeneland last time out. Wild card factor.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

8- Harmonize
-Coming out of one of the best wins at Keeneland all meet, going 8w on the far turn to cover the field. Has been on the lead in all three starts at the mile marker. Will close what could be a very fast pace early.
2- Thrilled
-If you use Harmonize you have to use Thrilled who finished second to Harmonize in the PG Johnson at Saratoga. Beat Harmonize in first career start. Very game second in the Ms Grillo. Will appreciate the drop back to a mile.
10- Illuminate
-Impressive win in the Cheveley Park Stakes last time out. Zoffany is a good up and coming sire. Will appreciate the extra distance. Very good shot for Richard Hannon.
4- Catch A Glimpse
-If the turf course ends up being soft, this horse will be tough, earning a 91 Beyer last time out in a romp at Woodbine at a mile on good turf. If the turf is fast, may be a play but won’t be a win contender.

Distaff

14- Sheer Drama
-Has defeated good fields this year. A very strong mare that will be fresh off of the layoff. Strong finisher and has beaten much of this field already this year. Her Personal Ensign win is the best win out of all horses in the race.
1- I’m A Chatterbox
-Has been the most consistent 3yo filly this year. Comes out of a win in the Cotillion, one of the better Distaff preps. She is improving and looming for a big win here. Last time she had an inside post (and also the rail) she romped to an 8 length win in the Silverbulletday.
8- Curalina
-Strong second last time out to a Belmont specialist in Wedding Toast. Very tough second (placed first) against I’m A Chatterbox in the CCA Oaks. Has faced older which is a huge plus.
7- Wedding Toast
-The one to beat in this race. She has been a Belmont specialist this year and has trouble carrying her speed around 2 turns. The scratch of Untapable helps her chances here. If she sits off the possible hot pace early, will be dangerous late.

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Fri Oct 30, 2015 4:28 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Analysis of the Saturday Races:

Juvenile Fillies

10- Songbird
-Best 2yo this year. Lights out win last time in the Chandelier. Lack of pace in this race helps her chances. Beat a next out winner in the Del Mar Debutante. Has been improving and keeps Mike Smith. Must use.
1- Land Over Sea
-Second to Songbird last time out (and third two races ago). Doug O’Neill is sharp with 2yos and rail will help her. Definitely can get a piece of the money here.
7- Nickname
-Quick winner last time out in the slop in the Frizette. Will stalk the pace behind Songbird. This horse may be better on an off track but she should like the trip she gets.
2- Tap To It
-Was second to Rachel’s Valentina last time out in a good closing effort. Looks to be much better than that. Will appreciate the increase in distance.

Turf Sprint

12- Ready For Rye
-Posted an impressive 104 Beyer last time out in the mud at Belmont. Won over The Great War two times ago at this distance. May be a better sprinter on the dirt but has been racing against top class sprinters and will be stalking a hot pace. Gets Victor Espinoza.
8- Something Extra
-Of the Front Runners, this one is all class. Forget last time out in the mud and look towards his record at 5.5 furlongs. He is 5/6 in the money at this distance and is 3/3 in the money at Keeneland, posted a career high Beyer when he was here earlier this year in the Shakertown. Perhaps a horse for course and gets Mike Smith.
1- Pure Sensation
-5.5 furlong specialist that has been racing against lesser quality. However, in the races against better quality horses (Honor Code, Bayern, Favorite Tale) he has shown his ability to stick around for much of the race. Logical choice here.
3- Undrafted
-Needed last race. Impressive win in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. Gets Dettori back aboard. Should improve off of his third place finish in this race last year.

Filly & Mare Sprint

3- Taris
-No clear favorite here leaves this race wide open. Taris is very lightly raced this year but put two nice efforts in last two races off a nearly 8 month layoff. Found a deadly duel upfront last time out and was wide for much of it. Last time at Keeneland was a 9 length romp at this distance. Would like her to sit just off the leaders early. Very live horse.
14- Cavorting
-Been the quiet filly sprinter this year, winning the Test and Prioress at Saratoga. Will appreciate the pace up front and has looked good sprinting. Outside post not the best but should do well here.
1- Fioretti
-Strong winner of the local prep last time out over next out winner Heykittykittykitty and Judy the Beauty. Is on the improve and may perform her best at 7 furlongs. Sophie Doyle is a young rider but has a lot of talent.
11- Judy The Beauty
-While she hasn’t been her best this year, she got a hole closed up on her last time out. Frankie Dettori and Wesley Ward together is a dangerous combination and hard to deny this daughter of Ghostzapper a look. Tries to win back-to-back Filly & Mare Sprints.

Filly & Mare Turf

3- Legatissimo
-Strong Europeans ship over and Legatissimo is the best of this field. Won the Matron Stakes very impressively last time out. Beat Arabian Queen 2 times ago in the Nassau Stakes, who would go on to beat Golden Horn next time out. Does her best running at around this distance and has been either first or second in five straight Group One races.
9- Miss France
-Hard to deny Andre Fabre when he ships over for the Breeders’ Cup. Was a close second in two straight races at Longchamp. Lost to Esoterique by less than a length last August. Has been lightly raced this year and should improve. Logical choice.
8- Dacita
-Impressive first start off of a long layoff and first start in the US with a win in the Ballston Spa for Chad Brown. She was able to beat Tepin and My Miss Sophia impressively. Her late kick is one of the better in this race. Logical.
12- Secret Gesture
-Finished ahead of everyone in the Beverly D in her first star in the US. Now gets Florent Geroux and has been training well up to this race. Big step up here but is a logical contender.

Sprint

13- Private Zone
-A top sprinter who has been racing against the pest. Struggled in this race last year after breaking slow. Has improved his break and looks ready to win here. No horse has come close to beating him in sprints this year and has been racing against top class horses in New York. Will be fresh of a layoff.
6- Ivan Fallunovalot
-Making a big step up in class here but he just likes to win. 7 wins in 11 tries at this distance. Achieved an outstanding 107 Beyer at 6f in an Optional Claiming even at Oaklawn to start the year. Highly accomplished this year and will be worth a play and at a price.
9- Masochistic
-One of the best sprint wins this season came in the Triple Bend. Masochistic won strongly from gate to wire over a tough crop of sprinters. He would exit that race into another Grade 1, just getting caught late in the Bing Crosby. Was facing a very grueling pace duel early last time out. Now gets Mike Smith and a very good post. Last time he left California, he romped by 14 lengths at Churchill Downs. If he shows up, he will be tough.
12- Big Macher
-Having only raced 3 times this year, Big Macher has shown little ability this year, but his win in the Pirates Bounty was exactly what he needed to have coming into this race. Now making his second start since returning from Dubai, he is a top notch sprinter who will be at a price.

Mile

9- Esoterique
-The mile division this year in both the US and in Europe. Outside of Solow, no other horse has stepped up to take control of this division. However, a win here for Esoterique can put her up there. She lost by a length to Solow back in the Queen Anne before narrowly losing to Muhaarar in a sprint. She has won two Group One mile races entering this race. Only question is how she will handle turns, something she hasn’t dealt with well in the past.
3- Make Believe
-The other Andre Fabre runner finished strong in the Prix de la Foret, beating out 12 others. His most impressive win this year came in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains, in which he beat New Bay by 3 lengths (New Bay would come back to finish 3rd in the Arc). He returns to the mile distance he excels at and is a strong finisher.
12- Time Test
-Although drawing the outside post, this son of Dubawi is primed to steal one. Time Test finished strong with Ryan Moore last time out and has a good run in the longer Juddmonte International behind Arabian Queen and Golden Horn.
7- Tepin
-Earlier this year she was one of the best fillies in the US. She was unlucky at Saratoga but achieved a life best 108 Beyer in the First Lady last time out at Keeneland, putting up a faster time than the boys did in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Worth a play.

Juvenile

12- Swipe
-Having finished behind Nyquist three straight times, this son of Birdstone is ready to win. He was not helped by the speed bias of Santa Anita, letting Nyquist hold on late even as he was tiring. Swipe will be helped by the longer stretch and will have Victor Espinoza aboard. Pedigree says that he will be better as they get longer. Is poised for a big performance here.
7- Brody’s Cause
-Dale Romans has another nice closer in his barn and after an impressive win at this distance at Keeneland, Brody’s Cause is well warranting of favoritism. He beat a very good horse in Exaggerator last time out and will be closing late down this long stretch. Not sure if the distance will be enough for him, however.
9- Exaggerator
-Winning at Del Mar or Saratoga in a 2yo race is one of the greatest feats of the summer. Winning at both? Spectacular. Exaggerator has shown skill and patience. I will excuse his last race due to the off track and he has been working well at Keeneland. The Desormeaux’s are in a position to repeat with this one.
5- Cocked and Loaded
-All year I have been putting Cocked and Loaded on top of my 2yo rankings. While he hasn’t done much lately, he is still a very impressive horse who will relish this distance. He returns to the site of his greatest performance and gets back Irad Ortiz, Jr. Larry Rivelli wouldn’t have sent him if he didn’t think he had a chance.

Turf

1- Golden Horn
-Is there any reason to pick against Golden Horn? Hard to find a reason. He has won almost every major race in Europe this season and was lengths better than Flintshire and Treve. He has been looking for the firm turf of the US all year and he has a chance to get it here. He also loves to use other horse’s rabbits; gets Shining Copper drawn right to his outside. Get those cameras ready for a flying dismount, Dettori has this horse sailing home.
11- Red Rifle
-Todd Pletcher has aimed this horse for this race for months and is well prepped. He wasn’t able to best much of this field in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic but he was able to finish well against Flintshire in the Sword Dancer. Castellano was aboard for his last win in the Bowling Green and will try to get him home again.
10- The Pizza Man
-Illinois doesn’t have much to cheer about in horse racing, but The Pizza Man is definitely their prize. After huge closing win to capture the Arlington Million, he prepped at Keeneland in the Shadwell Turf Mile, closing fast in a much shorter distance. He returns to the distance he performs the best at.
7- Big Blue Kitten
-The leader of the US turf division, Chad Brown and Joe Bravo have this son of Kitten’s Joy running strong this year. Hasn’t finished outside of the money since last September and looks to be running late. He should be getting a piece of the money.

Classic

4- American Pharoah
-The first chance at a Grand Slam happens this Saturday and American Pharoah looks to make more history. With the scratch of Beholder, American Pharoah should get a lone lead and will just take this field to where it needs to be. Hard to see him losing now. If he the American Pharoah who showed up in the Haskell makes another appearance, this could be the best performance of his career. Few horses get the chance to end their career like he can.
9- Honor Code
-Usually the undercard races of the Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown on the line get swallowed up, but Honor Code’s Met Mile win stood out even with all that happened hours later. He achieved the top two speed figures in my Pure Speed Figures for this race and his Whitney win might have been even better than his Met Mile win. Only concern is that he has never raced at a mile and a quarter. But this son of A.P. Indy looks to close strong.
6- Effinex
-Hard to see 30-1 on this horse, Effinex has two wins at a mile and a quarter already this year, getting a 107 Beyer in both. Definitely worth a play here, especially with Mike Smith aboard.
5- Gleneagles
-His pedigree is screaming for revenge in the Classic, with Galileo as his sire and a full to Giant’s Causeway as his dam. He may be untested on dirt and has yet to race past a mile, but Ryan Moore is a world class jockey and if he sends him close to the pace in a race lacking pace, he may upset this race.

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Fri Oct 30, 2015 5:16 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
ghostzapper74 wrote:

I'm not sure that's right. I love AP and Honour Code and have seen every race they have run and I think Honour Code has as much ability as AP. If AP gets a easy lead then he will just keep rolling but if he gets into a battle with Smooth Roller( can race close up or of the pace) then Honour Code can close in on AP going into the last furlong.


I'm not so sure Honour Code will stay, even the trainer is unsure. The classic is not a race to guess. If he does stay them yeah I agree he could surprise AP.


Fri Oct 30, 2015 10:22 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Cant see AP getting beat TBH he should be 1/5 on shot

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Fri Oct 30, 2015 10:37 am
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
It looks like u need front runners on the dirt, no hold up horses have got near to winning in the first 2 races.


Fri Oct 30, 2015 6:10 pm
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Post Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Word on the track is that the inside of the dirt is very very deep. Inside draw is unfavorable.

Shocked that Pablo Del Monte actually ran today... usually scratches out of every race he is entered in. But apparently the wise choice.

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