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 Melbourne Cup 
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Post Melbourne Cup
It's here again. As usual a great betting race and hard to handicap. The pace of the race appears to be on the slowish side. The turf figures to be Good. My choice is Our Ivanhowe. I gave him a good chance in the Caulfield Cup last out and he ran well. Just read a brief report that his recent workouts are very sharp - https://www.racenet.com.au/news/117054/Melham's-confidence-in-Our-Ivanhowe-growing-ahead-of-2015-Melbourne-Cup - A bad post and slow pace will be against him but am still taking him.

For second I really like the looks of Max Dynamite from Ireland. Has a strange past performances filled with both jumps and flat starts. His flat races are great with him improving with every start.

For third I will take the Japanese entrant Fame Game. Came here last out in the Caulfield Cup with a very nice prep. They have been aiming for this.

Fourth goes to Who shot Thebarman. Big late rally may be too late.

The United States rounds out my choices. His last race was very impressive.

Our Ivanhowe - Ben Melham's my man
Max Dynamite - Rises up again?
Fame Game - Should be right there
Who shot Thebarman - Too late on the scene?
The United States - Deserves to be in top five

Free form for the race here from Racenet. Their product is very good. - https://www.racenet.com.au/form/formGuide.aspx?trackCode=FLEM&shortDate=031115&raceNo=7&rn=0#

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Last edited by SiriusChill on Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:04 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
Once again it's a tough race to pick.

My stand out is Fame Game from Japan

then in racebook order I have
#10 Trip To Paris
#11 Who Shot The Barman
#18 Kingfisher
#20 Bondi Beach

My roughie at odds is #7 Hokko Brave

I am working off the TAB form guide https://www.tab.com.au/racing/2015-11-0 ... ON/FLM/R/7


Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:54 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
My Top 4 (in order):

23- Excess Knowledge
13- The Offer
17- Almoonqith
4- Our Ivanhowe

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Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:43 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
I like Our Ivanhowe, Max Dynamite and Bondi Beach. May take all 3!


Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:36 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
Come on Red Cadeaux!!!!!!!

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Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:02 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
A Heads up for UK & Irish ATR are not covering it live BUT MELBOURNE CUP 2015 LIVE COVERAGE Eurosport at 3-15
till 4-15 Tomorrow Morning

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Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:12 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
My Picks
Preferment 12/1 (NAP)
Bondi Beach 22/1 (N.B)
The United States 25/1
Excess Knowledge 33/1
Kingfisher 50/1

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Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:37 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
pjrhodes1970 wrote:
A Heads up for UK & Irish ATR are not covering it live BUT MELBOURNE CUP 2015 LIVE COVERAGE Eurosport at 3-15
till 4-15 Tomorrow Morning


Nice spot mate. Thought I'd have to find a dodgy stream :lol:


Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:11 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
No Worries Pricey mate

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Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:01 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
You could watch the whole card here - http://www.australianracing.com/

They show 2-3 tracks a night. You can sign up with a jibberish first and last name(press any buttons blindly) and use a throw away email like 10 minute mail for the sign up process. No need to deposit funds or gamble to watch.

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Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:20 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
Trip to Paris and Max Dynamite E.W for me.


Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:45 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
Tracking the odds from two days ago to about 5 minutes ago shows Red Cadeaux, The Offer and Who Shot Thebarman being bet heavily. The horses in green are my contenders. The odds in green are below the forecast odds. Dark green being significantly below the forecast odds. Odds in red are above the forecast. There was 1.7 million in the win pool on tab.au when the last odds were entered.

Image

I have charted many a races odds and am pretty good at deciphering what I see. For the Odds Forecast/Morning Line I have used the the line found at this website - http://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/meeting.asp?raceno=7&meeting=67569

Things that are interesting in this chart - Criterions steady odds at 15 are impressive. The big money on Who Shot Thebarman early and still now. The huge move on The Offer. I like Our Ivanhowe's steady line but would prefer a little more action.

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Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:16 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
I've backed Excess Knowledge at 22-1 and Hartnell at 20-1.

I feel that both of them are huge prices, Hartnell was winning the 2 mile Queen's Vase at Ascot last year and is with Godolphin who are red hot over in Australia at the moment and also one of the biggest riders in Australia James MacDonald. He's also been trained for this race, staying on really well over 1m 2f races.

Excess Knowledge needs to prove himself over 2 miles but has been running really well recently. If there's a trainer who knows the time of day with a horse like this, it's his trainer Gai Waterhouse.

Two big place bets that are overpriced.


Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:20 pm
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
5 million in the pool now and mostly the same. Still coming down on Red Cadeaux like a good thing. The Offer also getting lots of play.

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Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:37 am
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Post Re: Melbourne Cup
Thank Sirius - I just backed your man Ben Melham on Malaguerra for a nice all the way win in the fourth. :-)


Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:49 am
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