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 Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start 
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Handicapper

Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Posts: 481
Post Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
So, the Derby winner came up for sale in season three in a weekly sale. Broke my bank, but I grabbed him.

Here is the 3yo, the next entry was chosen by AI prior to purchase:
Image

Exciting! so what are his bars like?
Image

Really? :shock:

In SO6 that might have been a colt I tossed, even early game. He may still not be a great breeding prospect with those bars. But I now am rethinking my cut point in what I keep and what I sell in the first few years in SO7. What I toss the AI will race and use in breeding against me.


Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:05 pm
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Group 2 winner
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Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:22 pm
Posts: 739
Location: Fife, Scotland
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
I am not sure that you can always judge how an AI trained horse performs by comparing a horses bars.

I think that AI trainers horses often perform far above what their bars indicate that their performance should be.

Let us know how he performs in races when you are his trainer.


Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:42 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Posts: 481
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
You are right, I have noticed that. When he runs I'll update. But I still don't think I would have seen a horse in SO7, even AI owned, winning a G1 race that competitive with *those* bars. Imagine what the non-winners look like?

In the mean time, I had this happen. Bought this 3yo at a weekly auction since he had nice lineage, and won his baby races nicely. His fifth in the group I was hoping was because he was bred for longer than 1m2f. Indicator says 1m5f, his dam even won a novice at 2m.

Image

Paid £120K, and then saw the bars:
Image

Nice for distance bars, but that potential bar again. I figured he was a non-keeper, even for SO7. And like the other colt was pre-entered in another graded race. In his case the King Edward Stakes. Since I think the AI is slow to position off the pace stayers, I decided to just ride him myself. Then I could see his preferred pace and make sure he got the best positioning before I made the call to toss him or not.

This happened:
Image

Keep I guess? Firm isn't even his preferred going, he likes soft. His preferred pace is even, I missed the break.
(Yes I call my trainer RR Crossing, sorry)


Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:40 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:17 pm
Posts: 150
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
Just thought I'd add something to this. I've won the Derby before on SO7 with some fairly average colts. However I've just bought a Derby winner at auction and boy is it poor!

[img]<img%20src="https://i.ibb.co/svMdkyn/derby.png[/img]


Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:03 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:17 pm
Posts: 150
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
Just thought I'd add something to this. I've won the Derby before on SO7 with some fairly average colts. However I've just bought a Derby winner at auction and boy is it poor!

Image


Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:10 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:17 pm
Posts: 150
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
So, this is an Oaks winner about 10 seasons into my latest game.

Image

Looks like all you need is a good cruising burst...


Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:12 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Posts: 481
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
It seems true the other bars matter more relative to the potential bar. In SO6 it felt like a dog "with potential" would beat everything 9/10 times, at least early game.

However, these are still really low potential bars!

I wonder once you have AI post patch 0.097 and several seasons in. The "potential bug"? Foals have to be born after patch. I started a new games to see, but the first I'm playing is just in March.

And if potential slowly inflates as the AI breeds, then I really need to explain better why we need the stat AEI (average earnings index) for pedigree grading in studs. In real life, "potential inflated" .. horses got better and so did purses, or some races got lost. AEI indexes relative to the average earning of the year measured. So a 1940's horses AEI is relative to 1940, and a 2018 stud is relative to 2018. If you keep only one breeding stat on retired horses, this should be it.


Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:16 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:57 pm
Posts: 108
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
Is this being looked at? Mark?

I do hope so as examples like this are making me stick with S06 when I’d love to be on S07 now If it was where it needed to be

Cheers


Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:10 am
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Selling plater

Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:28 pm
Posts: 30
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
Hechicera wrote:
You are right, I have noticed that. When he runs I'll update. But I still don't think I would have seen a horse in SO7, even AI owned, winning a G1 race that competitive with *those* bars. Imagine what the non-winners look like?

In the mean time, I had this happen. Bought this 3yo at a weekly auction since he had nice lineage, and won his baby races nicely. His fifth in the group I was hoping was because he was bred for longer than 1m2f. Indicator says 1m5f, his dam even won a novice at 2m.

Image

Paid £120K, and then saw the bars:
Image

Nice for distance bars, but that potential bar again. I figured he was a non-keeper, even for SO7. And like the other colt was pre-entered in another graded race. In his case the King Edward Stakes. Since I think the AI is slow to position off the pace stayers, I decided to just ride him myself. Then I could see his preferred pace and make sure he got the best positioning before I made the call to toss him or not.

This happened:
Image

Keep I guess? Firm isn't even his preferred going, he likes soft. His preferred pace is even, I missed the break.
(Yes I call my trainer RR Crossing, sorry)



Hi mate,

Where did you get that indicator bar download ?


Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:41 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Posts: 481
Post Re: Example: SO7 AI horses have lower potentials at start
Cuzer wrote:
Is this being looked at? Mark?


Just to be clear, I made this thread as information not a complaint. The SO7 game, I think, starts out with all potential bars lower. You and the AI compete to get better ones.

Mwestwood wrote:

Hi mate,

Where did you get that indicator bar download ?


I made that one, by changing skylark's to add color shading at the lower and upper quartiles.
http://www.startersorders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=21&t=9972

I've changed mine again, as the color scheme was too "Italy" and I wanted that reversed with the red at the bottom/left, green to the right/top. Here:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1340jXFeRpmiyu23G0mFWTp3czXL4ryZJ/view?usp=sharing


Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:00 pm
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