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 Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential 
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Selling plater

Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:54 pm
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Post Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
I'm relatively new to the game. I have a horse that I thought would be outstanding. 100% speed. around 70% acceleration and potential. It took 6 starts for it to break maiden. In year three it is at 65% stamina which should align approximately with 1 mile 2 furlongs. Ran it in the derby and it was terrible.

Second horse 90% potential. 65% speed. 70% acceleration, 60% acceleration. Broke maiden in second star. Won a handicap and grade 3 stakes race as a 2 year old. Took 5th in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness stakes.

My question is the relationship between potential, speed and acceleration. Does potential modify those ratings or simply represent the ability of the horse to improve?

Same question with stamina relative to speed and acceleration. Does a horse with 100% speed but low stamina run faster than a horse with 100% speed and higher stamina? I'm thinking the horse with 100% speed couldn't break maiden because the races were too short and his speed is relative to stamina.

I was thinking the first horse would be a great stud when I first saw it but now I think the second horse with the high potential might be a better stud. It has the highest potential of any horse in my barn.

Thanks for any replies.


Fri Feb 25, 2022 8:57 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2022 5:13 pm
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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
Fairmount wrote:
I'm relatively new to the game. I have a horse that I thought would be outstanding. 100% speed. around 70% acceleration and potential. It took 6 starts for it to break maiden. In year three it is at 65% stamina which should align approximately with 1 mile 2 furlongs. Ran it in the derby and it was terrible.

Second horse 90% potential. 65% speed. 70% acceleration, 60% acceleration. Broke maiden in second star. Won a handicap and grade 3 stakes race as a 2 year old. Took 5th in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness stakes.

My question is the relationship between potential, speed and acceleration. Does potential modify those ratings or simply represent the ability of the horse to improve?

Same question with stamina relative to speed and acceleration. Does a horse with 100% speed but low stamina run faster than a horse with 100% speed and higher stamina? I'm thinking the horse with 100% speed couldn't break maiden because the races were too short and his speed is relative to stamina.

I was thinking the first horse would be a great stud when I first saw it but now I think the second horse with the high potential might be a better stud. It has the highest potential of any horse in my barn.

Thanks for any replies.


I did not want to be the one to try to answer this, because I am fairly new myself.
But in my experience it is so much more complicated than any of that.

There are the secondary traits to consider as well.
The best you can do is develop an eye for the ballpark template of what a successful horse looks like for you, and even then prepare yourself to be surprised from time to time.
I had a horse the kicked butt from the time he stepped into his maiden race at 2yo. Won damn near everything I threw him in, and I raced him 5-6 times to keep him fresh. Somewhere he took a hit in speed that took him under 80 in speed.
I could have screamed when I saw him as a 3yo, but I raced him anyway and he just kept winning.
He finished 2nd in the derby and 2nd in the Preakness, which was the best I had ever done to that point.
SO I really don't know the exact answer. I know he had really high POT, ACCEL, and had high secondary ratings in burst and finish.

Good luck, sorry I can't be more help or specific, but I didn't want your question to not receive at least an attempt at an answer.
Get back with us if you figure it all out! :D


Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:38 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:42 pm
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Location: Lincolnshire, England
Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
I think you guys play the US season. I can only speak for the UK. About to start season 33 of my one and only SO7 save (UK combined, no mods, no money cheats, no parallel games) which I have been playing for nearly 30 months in real time.

From my experience there is no answer to your questions.

I am not saying horses do not have certain traits that they run to - which you can pick up on by watching them race and taking on board the jockey comments. But those traits are often not identifiable with the stats (hidden or otherwise).

A long time ago I decided the only way to enjoy this game is to judge horses by what I see in front of me on the racecourse. Many of the stats are fluff to give SO7 more depth. I may have seen an occasional change in a horse after applying a different training schedule but more often than not it makes no difference. Just operate your yard sensibly - keep horses fit and healthy and allow plenty of time for development. But don't get too deep on those stats. It will drive you crazy.

Do loads of breeding to give yourself plenty of choices when the new foals arrive. Look for speed, acceleration, starting, burst etc and just keep the ones you think might be best. If you sell the rest don't be surprised if they do better than the ones you keep - AI horses do not run to the same criteria as yours so it is not any reflection on the choices you made. After playing for so many seasons I no longer have to sell for financial reasons so just take the doubtful ones out of the game.

My win percentage in both codes rarely drops below 20% and rarely exceeds 30%. I win plenty of top races. I lose many more top races. I admit I play the numbers game - throw enough doo dah at the wall and eventually some sticks. I run a large racing yard (always well over 200 horses) and a large breeding operation (currently over 600 horses with the mares being covered at 4yo, 6yo, 8yo etc). I love watching horses develop - which many often do. BUT THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH STATS. It is a result of knowing your horses, choosing the right races for them, keeping a successful jockey on board, resting them, gelding the right ones, and yes, knowing when to cull the ones that simply will not make it.

I appreciate not everyone has the time nor desire to play the way I do. But I stand by my statement that stats are little more than guidelines and are often unreliable. If they worked, why would horses with high consistency win a race and then finish midfield for two races, before winning again (same going, same class of race) all within a few months? Why would a horse with good battling qualities not battle? Why would a horse with high burst not use it race after race ?
Believe me, trying to work it all out will drive you crazy.

p.s as for the maturity bar - I have no idea whatsoever what it means. It is in a different colour. Should it be green like all the others to actually work? Does a long bar mean the horse matures quickly ? Or takes longer ? Anyway - whichever logic I apply it is never consistent. I just keep horses on the track and decide for myself if they have come of age !!


Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:43 am
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Selling plater

Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2021 1:54 pm
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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
Interesting replies. Thanks.


Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:59 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2022 5:13 pm
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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
That is a great reply by Long haul Harry, and pretty much in line with my observations of the game.
There are minimum thresholds for stats that you just accept as they won't be any good, but for that fairly wide swath of horses who look like they could be good, or could develop, racing them is the only way to find out.

The maturity bar is how fast the horse develops or fills up his POT bar from light green to green, and it seems to track with my observations on my horses development. Horses with more maturity bar (farther to the right) tend to be more, or fully, developed by mid season in their 3rd year, where horses with smaller maturity bars often take to year 4, 5, or beyond to ever reach their potential.


Sat Feb 26, 2022 7:00 pm
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Selling plater

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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
NealMac wrote:
That is a great reply by Long haul Harry, and pretty much in line with my observations of the game.
There are minimum thresholds for stats that you just accept as they won't be any good, but for that fairly wide swath of horses who look like they could be good, or could develop, racing them is the only way to find out.

The maturity bar is how fast the horse develops or fills up his POT bar from light green to green, and it seems to track with my observations on my horses development. Horses with more maturity bar (farther to the right) tend to be more, or fully, developed by mid season in their 3rd year, where horses with smaller maturity bars often take to year 4, 5, or beyond to ever reach their potential.


Thanks. I didn't know that. Maybe I just need to be patient with some of the horses that look like stars but don't perform at an early age.


Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:35 pm
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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
Fairmount wrote:
NealMac wrote:
That is a great reply by Long haul Harry, and pretty much in line with my observations of the game.
There are minimum thresholds for stats that you just accept as they won't be any good, but for that fairly wide swath of horses who look like they could be good, or could develop, racing them is the only way to find out.

The maturity bar is how fast the horse develops or fills up his POT bar from light green to green, and it seems to track with my observations on my horses development. Horses with more maturity bar (farther to the right) tend to be more, or fully, developed by mid season in their 3rd year, where horses with smaller maturity bars often take to year 4, 5, or beyond to ever reach their potential.


Thanks. I didn't know that. Maybe I just need to be patient with some of the horses that look like stars but don't perform at an early age.


I found some success also with fiddling with jockey tactics. High speed horses for me generally do better with Slightly hold up or hold up. If they have High ACCEL I will have them challenge later, and lower ACCEL earlier etc. Again though, just sort of try things out for these horses.
Also I have posted about Jockeys - you want low weight (8-4 or under) with high Skill and high honesty.
Yeah keep at it, and play around with things. Doesn't hurt and it can be lots of fun.


Sat Feb 26, 2022 9:15 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:42 pm
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Location: Lincolnshire, England
Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
I also had never viewed the maturity bar in that way. I will keep an eye on it over the next season or two that I play.

I have spent the last two days on Season 33 Day 1. I had a new foal drop of 193 horses. I have listed for keeping only those horses with 100% speed and at least 80% potential when (if) fully realised. It leaves me 61 horses to move into my race yard when they become 2yo's.

9 are NH only. Of the other 52 flat racing prospects, ten or so have possible chances to move to NH at 4yo.

Around 60 fillies will go straight to the breeding barn at 2yo. None have 100% speed but generally have high bars across the board. They are all horses with bloodlines from my best racing horses. Every year or so I use some AI stallions in search a bit of new blood, but generally I get better results from my own stallions.

The remaining 70 or so will most likely be taken out the game but the odd one might get a reprieve if a related horse with same sire or dam performs really well during season 33. It costs nothing for them to sit where they are for another six months.

I will start the season with 278 horses to race. Sounds a lot I know, but remember I play both codes and they have to keep me going the full twelve months. I am happy to enter all classes of race including occasionally sellers and claimers on the NH (always buying the horse back). I don't go below class 4 on the flat, and start taking flat horses out of the game from 4yo onwards. This cull is ongoing throughout the season - the decision is made once a horse starts going downhill. Similarly mares are culled from the breeding barn if they do not deliver a foal for keeping after 2/3 attempts. The number of outs in a season will largely match the number of ins.

But without wishing to labour the point I made earlier, I don't beat myself up on studying stats too much. Speed is king in both UK codes for me, and any other highish attribute is a bonus. It has taken me a lots of seasons to get so many 100% speed horses - in earlier years I just had to keep those with nearest to 100% and gradually improve things.


Sat Feb 26, 2022 9:55 pm
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Handicapper

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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
NealMac wrote:
Horses with more maturity bar (farther to the right) tend to be more, or fully, developed by mid season in their 3rd year, where horses with smaller maturity bars often take to year 4, 5, or beyond to ever reach their potential.


I believe you have that backwards. While it may appear counter-intuitive, the longer the bar, the slower the horse matures. A short bar indicates a more mature horse.


Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:12 am
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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
marklaker wrote:
NealMac wrote:
Horses with more maturity bar (farther to the right) tend to be more, or fully, developed by mid season in their 3rd year, where horses with smaller maturity bars often take to year 4, 5, or beyond to ever reach their potential.


I believe you have that backwards. While it may appear counter-intuitive, the longer the bar, the slower the horse matures. A short bar indicates a more mature horse.


We are talking about the same thing, right?
Grey bar that says maturity on secondary stats - and beside it the description says "The rate at which a young horse matures"?
Why would that be the opposite of the other bars and have a higher bar = lower?
Anyway, not going to argue about it, but my experience the slow developers have a low bar in that, and the horses fully developed before the triple crown races as 3 yo's have a high bar.
Maybe just flukes, lord knows I have been wrong on things before. :lol:

Case in point: This was my first Preakness winner: She was fully developed unlike her peers who had lower bars.

Image


Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:24 am
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Selling plater

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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
NealMac wrote:
marklaker wrote:
NealMac wrote:
Horses with more maturity bar (farther to the right) tend to be more, or fully, developed by mid season in their 3rd year, where horses with smaller maturity bars often take to year 4, 5, or beyond to ever reach their potential.


I believe you have that backwards. While it may appear counter-intuitive, the longer the bar, the slower the horse matures. A short bar indicates a more mature horse.


We are talking about the same thing, right?
Grey bar that says maturity on secondary stats - and beside it the description says "The rate at which a young horse matures"?
Why would that be the opposite of the other bars and have a higher bar = lower?
Anyway, not going to argue about it, but my experience the slow developers have a low bar in that, and the horses fully developed before the triple crown races as 3 yo's have a high bar.
Maybe just flukes, lord knows I have been wrong on things before. :lol:

Case in point: This was my first Preakness winner: She was fully developed unlike her peers who had lower bars.

Image


I suspect you are right. My best 3 year old has high maturity and high potential. I'm curious what summary looks like for that horse.


Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:52 am
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Handicapper

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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
Fairmount wrote:

I suspect you are right. My best 3 year old has high maturity and high potential. I'm curious what summary looks like for that horse.


Be curious no more:

Image

I was mistaken, she finished 3rd in the Preakness after winning 8 races in a row leading up to it.
It was her sister Dancing Iris (same sire, different dam) who won. I entered them both because they both had been on a holy terror through the competition since they were 2.

Image

She also had high maturity (about 66%) and was nearly fully developed.


Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:06 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:42 pm
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Location: Lincolnshire, England
Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
Yes, that is the bar I was initially talking about.

I have certainly had plenty of horses with a full bar that have only really started to perform at 8yo. But these were UK NH. Hence the reason for my believing it was the other way around. Perhaps it is different UK to US ? Different in flat to NH ? But surely not. Ambiguous to say the least. And possibly another piece of fluff added to SO7 for depth rather than something that actually works. And why is it a different colour to all the other bars ? An unfinished feature ?

I have to say I would never take a horse out of the game based on that bar being at one end or the other. More important is the bar above - juvenile constitution. I no longer keep any of those horses if it is very low as you will not be able to do anything with them until they are 3yo. I used to keep them and had moderate success on a couple of occasions but generally speaking these horses are so far behind and never fully catch up.

Bottom line of course is that if every stat was 100% accurate and worked, identifying great horses from the merely good would be easy, and much of the attraction in this game would soon disappear.


Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:38 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:03 am
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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
Let me preface my response by restating that I only play a US flat schedule and as a result of my deliberate pace of play I'm just now finishing up my sixth season, and have probably reviewed the ratings of less than 500 horses, making me me one of the least authoritative voices on the inner workings of this very fine game. Anything I'm about to share is purely anecdotal and certainly not borne of exhaustive research. That said, I took a few moments to review the maturity bars of my horses with early two and three year old success and found that 90% had ratings of 30 or less, including 0 for one and 15 each for two of my most accomplished fillies.

I also discovered that seven of the top 10 AI sires, each of whom had early two and three year old success, had ratings between 0 and 35, including two champion horses of the year with ratings of 0 and 35 respectively. Again, purely anecdotal.

Finally, with regard to whether the bar represents an actual attribute or is simply cosmetic, I'll refer you to this comment from Mark in response to a poster questioning whether the ratings had any real validity, which I found while perusing old posts:

"All of the bars are representations of combinations of actual horse parameters and none are meaningless. The level of the effect of some parameters may be very low however or the parameter may be generated from a number of horse variables and it may be difficult to actually isolate the expected effect in racing (or the actual effect may not be the expected) or even define it very well. But they all have some kind of effect and are not simply void stats. So these parameters do not usually refer directly to individual horse variables. There is meant to be some mystery to it all. If each horse had a variable directly related to these parameters then the game would become predictable."

The last two sentences speak to the last sentence from Harry's previous post. Without variability and mystery, this game would be a linear, formulaic bore...at least in my humble opinion.


Sun Feb 27, 2022 6:15 pm
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Handicapper

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Post Re: Question - speed, acceleration, stamina and potential
@Mark,
Thanks for the response.
That is weird (for lack of a better word) because it is so counter to my experience with my game.
It is true that it isn't set in stone and there is some variance and exceptions, but almost all of my achievers and fast developers have a high bar in maturity, and sine I started using that as one of the metrics to look for in breeding, the days of trying to coax horses to develop when they are 5 yo are over for me with the very rare exception.

I have found using that bar as a good indicator that a horse develops at a reasonable rate has been pretty accurate.
But I do have some horses with that bar being low that do develop, but they aren't the ones with a huge gap between light green POT and dark green.
Those horses seem to need more maturity bar then just the ones who only have 20% or so POT to go to reach their ceiling.

Anyway, I respect all opinions and appreciate the conversation.


Sun Feb 27, 2022 8:51 pm
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