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 To Derby or not to Derby? 
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:03 am
Posts: 112
Post To Derby or not to Derby?
You don’t have to be a fan of American racing to know that most US owners and trainers, and jockeys for that matter, consider the feature race at Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May as the crown jewel of thoroughbred racing. Having a Derby hopeful is something they all covet and often spend years chasing. Just three years into my virtual career, I never expected to be in the position to saddle my own potential hopeful. Potential, because I’m still debating whether my horse has the goods for this ten furlong extravaganza.

The inaptly named Black Dragon – he’s brown – is my potential hopeful. Purchased as a yearling at the Fasig-Tipton auction –poetic license – I’d like to suggest I’m a keen judge of virtual horse flesh, but the real truth is I was taken by a name that conjured memories of a long ago wasted youth spent devouring one fantasy tome after another, when I should’ve been wrestling with algebraic nonsense. It certainly wasn’t his 5 wins in 20 starts and just 3 stakes victories sire, or his even less accomplished dam, who wouldn’t know the winner’s circle from the paddock that convinced me. No. It was simply the name. A very cool name, with subliminal influences.

As my dumb luck would have it, the brown, not Black Dragon with the cool name turned out to be a half million dollar lottery ticket with recurring payouts. Hardly gangbusters out of the gate, it required three runs to break his maiden, he eventually proved to be a quick study and rolled to seven consecutive wins to end his first campaign, including victories in the Sanford Stakes and Saratoga Special, with an average margin of victory pushing three lengths plus. Ultimately, he finished as the #4 rated two year old, and might’ve achieved even greater notoriety if I’d recycled my horses every 7-10 days like my virtual counterparts.

Still, despite the success of the brown, not Black Dragon, I was struggling with whether to run him in the mile and a quarter chase for the roses. His sire only won twice beyond a mile and his dam never so much as attempted a seven furlong run. His breeding indicator suggests six furlongs and six and one half is as far as I asked of him in his initial campaign, but tempted by the prospects of a Derby run I decided to see if I could stretch him out as a three year old, beginning with the seven furlong San Vicente grade two stakes at Santa Anita. He proved to be more than up to the test, running clear and winning by three and a quarter lengths. Buoyed by this success, I stepped him up to a mile for the grade three Gotham Handicap and he easily ran away from the field, finishing three and three quarters in front of his closest competitor. Could he extend even further? Maybe nine furlongs for the grade two Wood Memorial, a common Derby prep race? Not a problem, he vanquished the field while winning cosily by a length and a quarter.

So why all this hand wringing? Well…..not sure he can tack on another furlong, even the best horse can be rendered irrelevant in a monster 20 count field, and a very stiff competition he’s yet to face, including a lights out filly, who’s already won 16 stakes, including five Derby preps. Hmmmm……


Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:35 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:03 am
Posts: 112
Post Re: To Derby or not to Derby?
I chose to run him and he finished a respectable fourth, eight lengths behind the 3/1 favorite filly Our Joia, who won her tenth stakes of the year on the way to what will surely be Horse of the Year honors. The brown, not Black Dragon drew the fourth post position and quickly became mired in traffic, settling into 14th place heading into the clubhouse turn. Completing the first two furlongs in a pedestrian :27.5, he moved up two spots to twelfth along the backstretch. Turning for home he was still seven lengths behind the leader in eighth, as he began navigating his way through the field for a final run. It came at the eighth pole, but it had none of his usual power and he ran under the wire at 2:06 3/5, a full 1 3/5 seconds behind the wonder filly, who increased her annual earnings to over $4.5M. It was probably as much as I could ask of him, given the 1 1/4 mile distance. I'll skip the remaining two triple crown races and target him for the Metropolitan Handicap at a distance more to his liking. He earned a tidy $150K for his Derby efforts, boosting his total earnings to $1.8M, a more than threefold return on my investment with plenty more racing to come.

It was a delightful and unexpected experience, coming in just my third racing season, and one I would do well to appreciate, given the unlikelihood of repeating it anytime soon. Neither my two year old crop nor my yearlings look to include any prospective Derby hopefuls.

Good racing!


Thu Nov 26, 2020 6:37 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:03 am
Posts: 112
Post Re: To Derby or not to Derby?
On another note, three of the first four Kentucky Derbies in my save have been won by fillies, matching the entire total for the 146 years of the real world event. You go, girls! :lol:


Thu Nov 26, 2020 6:56 pm
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