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 2yo old HELP 
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Selling plater

Joined: Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:27 pm
Posts: 10
Post 2yo old HELP
Hello all
I’ve recently started a new season having put the mobile 7 version down for a while, I’ve laid the usual foundations down buying the breeding barn and selling the 2yr olds etc until I’ve got Group winnings mares and am producing good 2yr olds.
The problem I have is campaigning them I usually run them as early as possible even if there breeding distance indicates is 1m 4f for example, most start in 5f 6f novice races and i will only step them in distance if the jockey says to.
Usually I will have a few standout 2yr olds in the crop every year that will win there first two novices usually recording a good rating 85-95 however then I’ll run them in the national or the Woodcote which they are usually fav for and they never seem to run well does anyone else have this problem? It’s like the two year old listed races are hard to win and then there Form as a knock on effect for ascot. Sometimes I’ll go straight to ascot and theyll go off fav for Coventry for example or Norfolk and again it’s very rare they win, I’ve looked at the stats such as maturity rate but I’ve had horses with slower maturity run well so I don’t think that matters
I’m just wondering how people run there 2yr olds?
For example If you have a mile breed indicated horse are you more patient and campaign them later on for the mile stakes races?


Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:32 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:42 pm
Posts: 111
Location: Lincolnshire, England
Post Re: 2yo old HELP
Your experiences pretty much match mine - and I'm in season 32 of a single save, so things don't change over time.

I will occasionally try a 2yo in a bigger race, but only late in season (Sept/Oct) and only if the horse is exceptional. There was a time when I rushed horses through but if they take a pasting in that type of race, they never seem to recover from it. I tend to just use the 2yo season to get horses on their way - some will improve at 3yo, some at 4yo, and one of my best ever actually came strong at 5yo, having been little better than goodish before that. So I try to be patient with the 2yo stock generally.

For those with longer distance breeding, I run them all at 5f early in season, maybe twice, then 6f, then 7f late in season. I do listen to the jockey advice, but still use this method even if nothing is said. 7f races are quite hard to find , and sometimes I have half or dozen or more horses declared in the same race. I'm not interested in results or performances therefore - for this group the 2yo season is simply about getting them slowly up the distances. Have them resting in the field by December, move them back into the yard the following February (as 3yo) so you can get a 1m or 1m 1f maiden/novice outing before the season ends. When the new season change-over occurs these horses will be ready and fit. I have had great success in the Derby, even with colts that struggled to get an 80 rating as 2yo.

I have 50 2year olds racing this season. It is July 1st and all have had two runs so far and produced around 40 wins. Means nothing of course as some will drop off despite a good start, whilst others will develop more slowly and shock me. As 3 year olds I start to get a clearer picture and some run only a couple of flat races before I realise they are future NH horses maybe and I set their training to blue and have them on jump training until Sept. All the others will run 5 times at 3yo. At 4yo the very worst get taken out of the game. Slow developing colts may get gelded. Less successful fillies but with good pedigrees go to the breeding barn. So at this stage I guess my original 50 horses will be down to around 30, and they will all have full seasons at 4yo. I follow the same process during that season regarding fillies and taking out of the game horses that have dropping ratings. So at 5yo I would have maybe 12-15 horses left. They will all be competitive at the very top end of the game. By this time their 2yo season/performances seem a long time in the past, and pretty much irrelevant. I keep racing them until they are no longer at the top, which is rarely beyond 6yo. All of these horses (stallions and mares) then join the breeding operation unless they are gelded stallions of course. I normally breed around 150 flat race horses, keeping what I think might be the best 50 !!

And before I know it, a new season beckons, and I start all over again.....................


Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:11 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Posts: 481
Post Re: 2yo old HELP
Same.

One thing that seems to be a big factor is how much of the potential bar is filled in. 2yr olds with a good bar, but not all filled in will often run well in the baby races. When I try to step them up, the ones that usually run well at 2 have two things.

First, the potential bar is fully filled in. That is biggest.

Also if you look at the breeding history, they are precocious. There is a hidden stat, in addition to the maturity bar, which you can not see that governs what age the horse peaks at. You can look for it in the racing history of the breeding. This helps, but has less effect than other factors.


Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:51 pm
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:03 am
Posts: 110
Post Re: 2yo old HELP
This from LHH:

I will occasionally try a 2yo in a bigger race, but only late in season (Sept/Oct) and only if the horse is exceptional.

I tend to just use the 2yo season to get horses on their way....So I try to be patient with the 2yo stock generally.

For those with longer distance breeding, I run them all at 5f early in season, maybe twice, then 6f, then 7f late in season. (I usually run 5f, then 6f twice, then 7f or even 8f if late in the year when they become available)

This from Hechicera:

One thing that seems to be a big factor is how much of the potential bar is filled in. 2yr olds with a good bar, but not all filled in will often run well in the baby races. When I try to step them up, the ones that usually run well at 2 have two things.

First, the potential bar is fully filled in.


From my own perspective, horses with a large portion of unrealized potential won't begin to fulfill any of it until they have at least three races under their belt.


Sat Aug 28, 2021 2:38 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:57 pm
Posts: 481
Post Re: 2yo old HELP
True.

If I have a horse with a lot of unfulfilled potential I try and get it four races as a 2y old, seems optimal for bar filling.

However, I have had 2 yr olds that win multiple G1s at 2. The usual bars only needed to be acceptable not outstanding, including potential. But the potential had to be the way full at 2*, and the breeding was precocious. So at least one parent ran better at 2 than 3 or older on the flat. That's not so say an incredibly outstanding horse, even a classic distance one that peaks at 3 for those classics, won't run very well with exactly the schedule you describe at 2. Its winning on pure class then, but there are horses that model as brilliant and precocious at 2 in the sim. And that's how I spot them.

* horses that have full potential at two but go on to get a bump in potential at 3+ can then sometimes stay competitive. But often if the potential doesn't go up after they fill it at 2, then they run worse at 3+ because the others have started in filling their (often better) potential bars and are more relatively competitive.


Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:10 am
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Handicapper

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:03 am
Posts: 110
Post Re: 2yo old HELP
I've not explored the inherited precocity angle. I'll be even more impressed with this game if it models this behavior.


Sun Aug 29, 2021 10:35 pm
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