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Dhughes
Handicapper
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:35 pm Posts: 209
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The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
Does anyone have any theories as to how my horse 'Always Dreaming' wins the Dubai World Cup and then completely fails for the rest of the season? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDwuoPEsOMkTheory 1: It was a fluke. He had a short trip, on the rail for most of the race. - Competition was at relatively high level that a fluke should not have been possible? Theory 2: He is a dirt specialist. - 17th in the 0-100 Westy Stakes would indicate otherwise. Theory 3: He is a Dubai dirt track specialist. - Trials and game form did not indicate he was a track specialist. Theory 4: The competition was poor. - Maybe the competition wasn't vintage but it beat some good horses that have gone on to have a much better and more consistent season. Encosta About has a G1 win. Andratx has a G1 second place, numerous placings and a G3 win. Mystic Lake has G1 placings and is a consistent performer. Encosta About and Mystic Lake Andratx and Dame Zenyatta Theory 5: The horse has low consistency - Possibly? Theory 6: The horse has low constitution - Is constitution even a thing in the race kit? Theory 7: He needs further, 12 furlongs. - He did not impress at 12f in my trials. Theory 8: He needs a drop in trip, 9 furlongs - not convinced Would be interesting to hear any thoughts.
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Thu Jun 18, 2020 10:06 pm |
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leonvr
Group 1 winner
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 2:50 pm Posts: 2452
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
The race had no pace and was run really slowly. The time is more than a second off standard.
Slow pace can give a false result. Also it can suit horses who can quicken well. The high acceleration bar on your horse indicates that this is the case.
Since then the horse has lost form. Sometimes horses run very poorly once losing form. It may prefer dirt as well.
But pace had a lot to do with that result
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:44 am |
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pjrhodes1970
Group 1 winner
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 8:48 pm Posts: 15151 Location: Republic of Ireland
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
also the Dubai races are totally unique my horse was 3rd in the world cup and done absolutely nothing since
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:09 am |
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NPG319
Group 1 winner
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:39 am Posts: 2497 Location: South Australia
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
From doing the handicapping I have noticed a few early G1 winners in week 1 and 2 have lost all form. I have also noticed it with some other horses who have put together a couple of good Group races and then lost all form as well.
No idea what it's about.....maybe it is something to do in the make up/mechanics of the horse's stats?
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:17 am |
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simpleminds
Group 1 winner
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2011 5:56 pm Posts: 5662 Location: uk
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
Pace and i think some trainers didn't enter the Dubai world cup races i didn't enter Sinn Script or Court Minstrel as i have never had good horses on the Flat to compete i expect like i did they sent them to the Maidens Court Minstrel won and won a Group 3 since while sinn script lost its first two races but since it has won 5 races in it's last 7 races including 3 group 1's 4th in the Arc and hopefully a win this week before going to the breeders Cup.
Gray
_________________simple in mind but wonderful in young lifehttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNzbn9 ... idx5pNkHaQ
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:28 pm |
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Lordedaw
Group 2 winner
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:29 am Posts: 761 Location: Warwickshire
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
As one or two of you know I did an depth 'under the hood' investigation into hidden stats and the real meaning of the bars during the end of SO6 using the legend editor. I am assuming here that some if not all of the same things will apply to SO7. Here are a couple of things that may be relevant to your horse that haven't ben mentioned already. 1. Horses have track specialist boosts. Yours may have one for Dubai. My horse White Rum has one for Newbury. 2. Horses have times of the year when they are at their peak. This is why I suggested ages ago that the correct date is entered in the racekit for the date of the race. Although this may have more to do with when its exported than when it runs. I advise everyone to go into the legend editor and see the make up of some of the legends and the info in there. I seem to recall there was more in the SO6 one so if you have that check that too. Its all quite interesting. Mind you, take into account how badly my flat horses are doing before you take any notice of me.
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:01 pm |
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Dhughes
Handicapper
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:35 pm Posts: 209
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
I wasn't aware of the legend editor, very interesting, there does seem to be some stats which could have contributed. I can't remember what month I exported the horse, but if I did export it just before it's "peak form", that could have resulted in that performance. Or depending on the racekit formatting, maybe he peaks in March/April. There is also "peak form intensity", which I imagine this horse has very little of, as form only lasted one race. Also in the game the horse only had 2 good performances out of 8 races which would agree with that. You don't appear to be able to select Dubai as course specialist for a new legend, but I suppose it might still be relevant in the game. Does anyone know if stats such as consistency and constitution are relevant in the league racekit? They don't appear to be relevant in the race construction kit, horses are usually pretty consistent.
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:53 pm |
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jalupen
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:00 am Posts: 1288
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
mate it was a terrible race look how many winners came out of the race even leons horse hasn't won mine was retired wk6 pj as stated wasnt good none of the really good old uns were in sinn script woulda won by 5l
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:01 pm |
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Dhughes
Handicapper
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:35 pm Posts: 209
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
jalupen wrote: mate it was a terrible race look how many winners came out of the race even leons horse hasn't won mine was retired wk6 pj as stated wasnt good none of the really good old uns were in sinn script woulda won by 5l mate I said even if they were not vintage competitors they have still done a lot better since that race. Your replacement 10f horse, week 6 upload Ballesteros Senator, has been beaten by Mystic Lake, Encosta About, Dame Zenyatta and Andratx pretty regularly. Court Minstral has also been regularly beaten by the above. Sinn Script is a 12 furlong horse but I look forward to his 5L win in the breeders cup classic.
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:03 pm |
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delmonty1964
Group 3 winner
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 10:49 am Posts: 625 Location: torquay . devon
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
all that matters is your horse won end of
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:57 pm |
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jalupen
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:00 am Posts: 1288
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
and as i stated my middle distance horses were rubbish tho senator is a considerable step up on what i had which just goes to show how bad that race was and i'd still fancy sinn script to beat that field even over 1m2f
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 9:37 pm |
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Dhughes
Handicapper
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:35 pm Posts: 209
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
jalupen wrote: and as i stated my middle distance horses were rubbish tho senator is a considerable step up on what i had which just goes to show how bad that race was and i'd still fancy sinn script to beat that field even over 1m2f Not sure what you're saying, your horse Sketchy Pous finished 7th in the Dubai World Cup, had a few mediocre results and was retired. It's replacement Ballesteros Senator was thrashed in the Prince of Wales, Juddmonte and Irish Champion Stakes by some of those "bad horses" who finished 2nd-6th in the Dubai World Cup. Lets hope Sinn Script is entered in the BC Classic next week so we can find out.
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Fri Jun 19, 2020 11:10 pm |
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jalupen
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:00 am Posts: 1288
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
well senator beats sketcy pous by about 7l at home gallops not every horse is suited to league running and no gray wont run sinn script nor should he but dont think its not possible especially in the first few seasons no one thought it was possible to win the american triple crown in the league but Ghostzapper did exactly that and against big fields, you asked people for their thoughts i gave you mine and you seem to have taken it as some kind of attack which it wasn't,the top 6 in that race have had 51 runs between them all season with just the 3 wins that includes the race you won make of that what you will i read it as a bad race but will be withdrawing that conclusion as it obviously offends
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Sat Jun 20, 2020 12:40 am |
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pjrhodes1970
Group 1 winner
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 8:48 pm Posts: 15151 Location: Republic of Ireland
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
I'd just be delighted that I won the worlds richest race You have asked peoples opinions Dan and your reaction to some of the posts have been a bit prickly.
I breed horses especially for the Meydan festival because its such a unique track and conditions a horse that wins a World Cup just wont cut it in a Coral Eclipse or Juddmonte because the races are a million miles apart alien in terms of conditions unless you have bred a complete freak.
Considering you are only on your second season you are doing incredibly well your performances this season have taken the eye and you no doubt will be pushing the top trainers next season.
It's all a learning curve and you have a great base to build from for next season.
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Sat Jun 20, 2020 6:57 am |
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leonvr
Group 1 winner
Joined: Wed May 14, 2008 2:50 pm Posts: 2452
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Re: The mystery of the demise of a Dubai World Cup winner
Mystic Lake is probably my 3rd choice 10f horse. In retrospect I should have entered Endless Nights and Gray should have entered Court Minstral but we both expected our flat horses to be mid tier as normal so I put Endless Nights in the easier option not realising how good she was. Also I think there are number of 3yo's who would beat that field and they could not run because the race was 4+
So yes the field was probably weaker than normal but also the lack of pace and other factors played a part. I would be ecstatic with the win and be trying to run that horse on dirt only to try get some form back. As the lack of form is now clearly causing the horse to run really badly.
Your best horse is clearly Driving Henrietta and that is the one I woud be looking at to improve lines. Maybe run some trials at home to verify if Always Dreaming performs better on dirt. Expirement with sticking a pacemaker in the race to see if a fast pace causes him to run badly. I have purposely put Dancing Goddess in almost every top 10f race so the pace has always been really quick unlike the Dubai cup. If your horse runs badly with a fast pace then you also know that is an issue.
Trialing as always can give you answers to these questions
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Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:38 am |
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