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 NH Week 4 
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Handicapper

Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:44 am
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Location: Ireland
Post Re: NH Week 4
come on john, your a top trainer, league cant afford to lose all the people who has been here for years. i 100% agree with you.

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Ryan


Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:49 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
jockeyryan321 wrote:
come on john, your a top trainer, league cant afford to lose all the people who has been here for years. i 100% agree with you.


Ryan its not about me but having a fair league , it should be a league that is fun for all . If u got a horse rated 75 or below then u banging u head against a brick wall. I've been saying this for the last few years but the top trainers clearly don't want to give up any races for the lower down trainers.


Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:57 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
john i totally agree with what you're saying but there are other factors involved where trainers with lower rated horse still think they got a world beater and put them in the wrong races most of my team are rated over 100 but i'm a long way off being a top trainer if i get anything rated under 100 it goes straight into a h/capp which a lot of other trainers don't seem to understand they want to run their in game star in the derby off a 65 rating needs to be some kind of grading cap ie G1 min 105 G2 min 100 G3 min 95 listed min 90 this way we get the right horses running in the right races.


Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:21 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
We have this same conversation every season and every season we add more handicaps, more specialist group races more max rated races. Honestly I don’t really care what we do, I’ll pick my team according to the schedule and adding worse horses to my team is hardly a challenge.

My point really is we’re only in week 4, it is the first week where the maidens (basically group races) have fallen away and the handicaps have arrived in anger, realistically there are 12 NH races I have a sniff at this week, based on my strike rate I’ll likely get 2 wins at best, I bet there are middle/lower tier trainers who get as many or more this week.

On the flat my situation is worse, as I really sit in that middle tier, I am high in the money due to very careful entires into G1H races, won 3, with ideal conditions, one great looking 3yo and one returning horse who has probably already had her best race. Realistically I think I have one genuine win chance, but in a G1 so that never even close to being a sure thing. If I get a single win this week I would be happy.

We may have to tweak some weeks along the way, but let’s get passed halfway before we tear up the schedule, the handicap challenges are also making this season a little worse.


Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:36 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
I definitely dont think you are a middle tier trainer, you have literally won the Kentucky Derby. You are at the top with all the other top trainer. Last season you had lots of group 1 success with belladona.

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Ryan


Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:49 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
jockeyryan321 wrote:
I definitely dont think you are a middle tier trainer, you have literally won the Kentucky Derby. You are at the top with all the other top trainer. Last season you had lots of group 1 success with belladona.



I can understand what Josh means. I am probably classed as a top tier trainer having won the 2000 Guineas and I have another 8f horse who is doing well but when you look at the rest of my flat string they are split about 50-50 between horses rated about 105 and horses rated at about 80.

The 105 horses are not really good enough for group races but too highly rated for handicaps and the rest are lower tier handicappers.

I think there are are only maybe 5 trainers who have a string of horses that can be called top tier. There will be many trainers with one or two good horses and the rest just average.


jalupen wrote:
john i totally agree with what you're saying but there are other factors involved where trainers with lower rated horse still think they got a world beater and put them in the wrong races most of my team are rated over 100 but i'm a long way off being a top trainer if i get anything rated under 100 it goes straight into a h/capp which a lot of other trainers don't seem to understand they want to run their in game star in the derby off a 65 rating needs to be some kind of grading cap ie G1 min 105 G2 min 100 G3 min 95 listed min 90 this way we get the right horses running in the right races.


I totally agree, placement of horses is very important for lower tier trainers. That was why I started a thread about this a couple of weeks ago.


Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:10 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
Jim Murray wrote:
jockeyryan321 wrote:
I definitely dont think you are a middle tier trainer, you have literally won the Kentucky Derby. You are at the top with all the other top trainer. Last season you had lots of group 1 success with belladona.



I can understand what Josh means. I am probably classed as a top tier trainer having won the 2000 Guineas and I have another 8f horse who is doing well but when you look at the rest of my flat string they are split about 50-50 between horses rated about 105 and horses rated at about 80.

The 105 horses are not really good enough for group races but too highly rated for handicaps and the rest are lower tier handicappers.

I think there are are only maybe 5 trainers who have a string of horses that can be called top tier. There will be many trainers with one or two good horses and the rest just average.





Thats not the case here, Being realistic the likes of Gordon Elliot has plenty of average horses, he is still classed as a top trainer, Plenty of top trainers have plenty of average horses in there yard.

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Ryan


Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:18 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
Can any of the top trainers say they would stick around if they had a 1 or 2 % strike rate, that is not fun.

Name me one good race that got scrapped for a normal H'cap !!!!!!


Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:33 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
I have found exactly the same as Josh with the NH this week and main flat chances are in the wide open G1s.

There are so many handicaps for mid-low level horses and let's see what happens. I keep calling different trainers' winners home in these handicaps every week!!!!

All I can see is the smallest fields this week are in the low handicaps and hunter races. Why are they not packed if there aren't enough races for small trainers? Yet some of the G1s have horses entered in them that don't have a chance.

There has to be the right balance of good/fair handicapping, a shcedule that works with the racekit handicapping, and trainers entering horses into the right races. Willie Mullins is allowed to target handicaps (And he does) as well as big grade 1s.

Reducing the stable size for the 'best' trainers is giving them less races to get involved with and enjoy - how is that fair and encouraging for them to play the game?

If we get the balance right, the league will grow and everyone will be happy.

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Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:38 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
Well explained. Reflects my sentiments about the league.


Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:07 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
HurricaneRun wrote:



All I can see is the smallest fields this week are in the low handicaps and hunter races. Why are they not packed if there aren't enough races for small trainers?


Some of the newbies are new and dont know what the right balance stable to have, as you can expect as its there first season. I was the same last season

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Ryan


Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:07 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
and as for the comment "they dont have a chance" some of the newbies didn't come to the league just to be entered in handicaps, yes i know for the newbies you think your horses and world beaters but some of them might of came here to just to have a runner in a group 1.

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Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:12 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
jockeyryan321 wrote:
and as for the comment "they dont have a chance" some of the newbies didn't come to the league just to be entered in handicaps, yes i know for the newbies you think your horses and world beaters but some of them might of came here to just to have a runner in a group 1.


You're missing my point though here Ryan. People are asking for more races targeted for lower trainers, and less stable slots for bigger trainers - yet many of the smallest fields are in the races in the schedule that are targeted at the lower trainers.

But then you're saying newbie trainers also want to have a runner in a group1. That is totally fine, of course they can enter, but they can't enter them and come near last and then complain they can't get enough wins or races that they are capable of winning. Those horses thrown into the g1s could be picking up races in the handicaps!

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Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:35 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
I dont think any small trainer complained about getting enough wins, As i said SOME newbies dont come to the league for handicaps, its just the joy of having a runner in the race! last or first doesnt matter! im not saying im going for the group races as i already stated. I have never said less slots for the top trainers, im happy the way it is

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Ryan


Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:42 pm
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Post Re: NH Week 4
I think i had enough for today, I have had bad outcomes from the league- im considering whether this will be my last few weeks.

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Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:47 pm
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