Author |
Message |
mjtags11
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:40 pm Posts: 1631 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
|
Breeders Cup 2015
So the draw is today (1:30pm EST for all races except for Distaff and Classic; 5:30pm EST for Distaff and Classic) and I have to say that this may be one of the most difficult to handicap Breeders' Cup's in recent memory. Last years was a pretty straight forward Cup with few upsets. This year, especially in the Juvenile races, almost the whole field has a chance to win. Before I go into deep handicapping each race (expecting an all nighter this week just to get through the card) I have a few key horses that could factor into wagers:
Breeders Cup Sprint: Ivan Fallunovalot -While not a win contender, this midwest sprinter is quick and a deadly late kick. He may not have faced the best competition each race (look at Work All Week last year... not the best races but ended up winning) but almost always finishes in the money. His is my key in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. Will be including him on all of my tickets (if he gets in... sitting one spot out right now).
Breeders Cup Juvenile: Cocked and Loaded & Swipe -I've been very high on Cocked and Loaded since his maiden win at Keeneland in the spring. He just didn't take to the Saratoga track as much as he did to Keeneland, Belmont, and Churchill Downs (happens... not every horse can win at Saratoga). I expect a big performance from him. He might not be a Nyquist or a Ralis, but he is one fantastic horse and if he returns to his midpack closing style, watch out. -Swipe has been following Cocked and Loaded and Nyquist for much of the year, and is just waiting for a chance to pass them. Keeneland has not been kind to front runners and Swipe is just going to let that bias help him. This could be his coming out party.
Breeders Cup Turf: The Pizza Man -Illinois horse racing doesn't have much to cheer about these days, but The Pizza Man put on a show at Arlington and almost won at a mile at Keeneland last time out with a deadly late closing kick. Golden Horn hasn't faced too many horses with a kick like his and The Pizza Man could be primed to upset. But even if he doesn't, he is a must use in the exotics.
For now, that is what I have. I'll be back Wednesday with more information. Also, look towards my blog, Horse Racing Station (link at bottom of the page) for my full analysis and selections for all of the weekends races.
|
Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:02 pm |
|
|
pjrhodes1970
Group 1 winner
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 8:48 pm Posts: 15167 Location: Republic of Ireland
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Wes Keen on Judy The Beauty - Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint Green Mask - Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
|
Tue Oct 27, 2015 2:34 pm |
|
|
ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4112 Location: Wales
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
There is only one horse this year and it's the might Songbird, cannot and will not lose. Oh well just looked and she's a non runner I take that back she is running. Stupid at the races web site doesn't even have her in the race.
|
Tue Oct 27, 2015 5:17 pm |
|
|
Pricey
Group 2 winner
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:56 am Posts: 904
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
mjtags11 wrote: Breeders Cup Turf: The Pizza Man -Illinois horse racing doesn't have much to cheer about these days, but The Pizza Man put on a show at Arlington and almost won at a mile at Keeneland last time out with a deadly late closing kick. Golden Horn hasn't faced too many horses with a kick like his and The Pizza Man could be primed to upset. But even if he doesn't, he is a must use in the exotics. . Love the Pizza Man, won me a fortune the last couple of years with his runs at Arlington. Already on at 14/1 e/w for Saturday.
|
Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:04 am |
|
|
SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Here goes - my picks and opinions on the Breeders Cup races which no one asked for...
Juvenile Turf - Not the best renewals of this race. The pace looks to be on the slowish side and the turf is expected to be soft. Watching the races at Keeneland the last few weeks showed the turf course to be IMO terrible shape. I don't expect it to be any better on Friday. Speed was holding well on the turf but I will take a late runner.
Camelot Kitten - Has the most impressive late rally of the bunch and also a nice last out race at this very track.
Hit A Bomb - Looks the one to beat to me. - 1
Airoforce - Has done everything right in two starts and should be right there. - 2
Ray's The Bar - Chad Brown's entry on the scene late.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
Last edited by SiriusChill on Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:34 am |
|
|
SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Dirt Mile - Another sub par renewal of a Breeders Cup race with the big exception of Liam's Map. Liam's Map is bred to be as fast a front runner you will ever see - and he runs like it. The pace appears to be fast with other speed in the race but Liam's Map should be able to put them away.
Liam's Map - Undefeated at a mile and as fast as fast can be. Looks very hard to beat - 1
Red Vine - Clear second. Seems a cinch exacta - 3
Lea - One of the best around on a good day - 2
War Story - His West Virginia Derby race was a monster. Expecting this one to break through soon.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
Last edited by SiriusChill on Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 3:48 am |
|
|
SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Now this race is a good one. The pace appears to be on the slow side. Lots of class here so naturally I will take the second time starter with only a Maiden win to her name. Gliding By was most impressive winning her debut at Woodbine. A part interest in her was sold and she changed trainers to Bill Mott. He/they must think highly of her to put her into this race in her second start. Her fractions especially the final fraction are what caught my eye. Reminiscent of what Lady Eli did last year. Gliding By's fractions in her first start ~ 25 - 24.2 - 24.1 - 20.4
Gliding By - Get on this one
Illuminate - Like the nice prep.
Alice Springs - Chosen because she's a Euro. - 2
Last Waltz - Brown/Castellano
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
Last edited by SiriusChill on Fri Oct 30, 2015 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 4:15 am |
|
|
SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Distaff - Many chances in the Distaff this year with lots of pace to boot. The expected hot pace sets it up nicely for Got Lucky. In her last two starts with Irad Ortiz aboard she has been relaxing nicely and making big rallies. High on her in this race.
Got Lucky - In top form of career and Irad Ortiz seems to fit her well.
I'm A Chatterbox - Have always been impressed by her
Warren's Vaneda - Longshot has sneaky pattern coming into this. Won't surprise me
Wedding Toast - The one to beat. Needs to rate instead of setting an easy pace.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 4:25 am |
|
|
pjrhodes1970
Group 1 winner
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 8:48 pm Posts: 15167 Location: Republic of Ireland
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
BEHOLDER OUT OF THE CLASSIC
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 4:23 pm |
|
|
ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4112 Location: Wales
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
pjrhodes1970 wrote: BEHOLDER OUT OF THE CLASSIC That's a shame because she had the best form going into the race.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 5:15 pm |
|
|
Pricey
Group 2 winner
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:56 am Posts: 904
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
ghostzapper74 wrote: pjrhodes1970 wrote: BEHOLDER OUT OF THE CLASSIC That's a shame because she had the best form going into the race. Yes a real shame for the race, I know it's the classic but American Pharoah really should win this with ease now.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 5:43 pm |
|
|
ghostzapper74
Group 1 winner
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:03 am Posts: 4112 Location: Wales
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Pricey wrote: ghostzapper74 wrote: pjrhodes1970 wrote: BEHOLDER OUT OF THE CLASSIC That's a shame because she had the best form going into the race. Yes a real shame for the race, I know it's the classic but American Pharoah really should win this with ease now. I'm not sure that's right. I love AP and Honour Code and have seen every race they have run and I think Honour Code has as much ability as AP. If AP gets a easy lead then he will just keep rolling but if he gets into a battle with Smooth Roller( can race close up or of the pace) then Honour Code can close in on AP going into the last furlong.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 6:13 pm |
|
|
SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Juvenile Fillies - All the attention will be on Songbird as it should be. I dare to go against her. Tap To It is the choice. True she was beaten by Rachel's Valentina last out but my thinking is maybe she had some excuses. Perhaps she had spent too much on her fabulous debut and wasn't totally ready for the Spinaway. I'm hoping with the short break after the Spinaway that she comes back with a repeat of her debut.
Tap To It - Yet another Tapit beast.
Rachel's Valentina - Beat the top choice last out. - 2
Songbird - Obvious favorite will take some beating. Not a lock in my book - 1
Forever Darling - Ambitious spot after Maiden win.
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
Last edited by SiriusChill on Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 9:57 pm |
|
|
SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Turf Sprint - I love Turf Sprint Stakes with full fields. Always exciting races. I will take Pure Sensation on the rail. He is undefeated at the distance. Has come back in great form as a 4yo and this will be his third start of the year. Gets my vote over Undrafted just barely because of his tactical speed advantage. Undrafted appears well primed for this spot.
Pure Sensation - Undefeated at the distance
Undrafted - The one to beat may fall a nose short with the big rally.
Green Mask - Primed for this race also. - 3
Mongolian Saturday - Hard knocking horse never runs a bad race - 1
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
Last edited by SiriusChill on Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 10:43 pm |
|
|
SiriusChill
Group 1 winner
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 6:57 am Posts: 2867
|
Re: Breeders Cup 2015
Filly&Mare Sprint - Tons of speed in this race which sets it up perfectly for Cavorting. She looks a sure thing in here.
Cavorting - Runs away with this - 4
Artemis Agrotera - Weird spot for a return to the races. Think she may be ready
La Verdad - Powerhouse mare is obviously a ? at any distance longer than 6 furlongs - 2
Wavell Avenue - Can gain a share. - 1
_________________https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClB2FZ7Qvwq0Ons_6jN1lAQ - Watch The Cats! 24-7 Webcam Of Non-Profit Cat Rescue
Last edited by SiriusChill on Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
|
Thu Oct 29, 2015 11:02 pm |
|
|
|