
Re: Open Disscussion Moving Forward with the Flat Problem ?
Your thoughts please on how I handicapped the peculiar 8th race. One in which I won. The Group 3 Dalia. I had noticed a few hours before the deadline that this race came up real light. To me light = No ghost,thunder,pj,harrison or jalupen. It's just how I think. Avoid those trainers horses at all costs. A short field with bad form was a big plus.
These horses and mine I thought would dawdle in the first half and my horse would love that. Plus the course was listed good and my horses usually do better from good to firm to most especially dirt.
It worked out exactly how I envisioned...

The ratings after...

In my mind a 10 point raise is what I give the most impressive winners. Delfinium got a 93. From there I determine the ratings by beaten lengths for the rest of the field working down from 93. These are the ratings at face value with Delfinium's rating being true.
Delfinium - 93
Just A Craze - 89
Super Who - 85
Alder's End - 84
Devious Diva - 79
Perfect Man - 77
Curtains Tilly - 74
Using a horses previous rating I determine the number of ratings points difference and then meet somewhere in the middle on how many points to add/subtract.
Delfinium - 93 - 83 = 93
Just A Craze - 89 - 104 = 101
Super Who - 85 - 75 = 83
Alder's End - 84 - 102 = 94
Devious Diva - 79 - 114 = 100
Perfect Man - 77 - 103 = 93
Curtains Tilly - 74 - 72 = 74
1. Delfinium - My horse. Totally thrashed in two starts. Get's the perfect setup. 10 points up.
2. Just A Craze - middle ground was 7/8 points. This was a graded race. She did finish second in a graded race. BUT this was a glorified handicap race at even weights and she lost to an 83 rated horse with no form whatsoever. 3 points down.
3. Super Who - Super Who? That's what the bettors said when the tote board lit up. Goose egg form the first two weeks and then she scores graded money. Further evidence of this poor field. 5 points the middle. Gets a 3 point raise.
4.Alder's End - A return from last season and either Follis can't find the right spot or he is addicted to running in group races. This aint no 102. Middle is 9 points. 8 down
5. Devious Diva - One to beat. Group placed. Destined to be 6th best in most group races. Get's a cherry ripe Group 3 and lost to my donkey. This horse needs a break. Middle is 17.5 points. 14 down.
6. Perfect Man - Came in off a decent debut. Should've been competitive against these? middle is 13 points. 10 points off.
7. Curtains Tilly - No form to date. None today. It was a grade 3 and she was mildy competitive. Up 2 points.
I tried the same way with this advice from Lordedaw and the results were quite similar. My point scale is a little less but I will adopt this scale more.
Quote:
CALCULATING PERFORMANCE FIGURES
Performance figures can be considered as the building blocks of handicap ratings. They are calculated for each performance and are ultimately used to produce handicap ratings. In producing performance figures for the horses that have participated in any particular race, the Handicapper will tend to identify one or more ‘yardstick’ or ‘marker’ horses through which the level of the race is established. These will generally be horses that the Handicapper believes have run in recent performances to the same level as in the current race, or have performed in the current race to the same level as their current handicap rating. After finding the most plausible fit with the yardstick horse(s), the relativity between them and the other runners is interpreted by the Handicapper according to an approximate pounds-per-length conversion (illustrated below) and adjusted for the weights carried: Flat
5f: 3lbs per length
6f: 2.5lbs per length
7f-8f: 2lbs per length
9-10f:1.75lbs per length
11-13f:1.5lbs per length
14f:1.25lbs per length
15f+:1lb per length